What will happen if US forces pull out of Iraq?

Good responses from everyone. A couple of my thoughts…

I don’t see Iraq becoming a haven for al-Qaeda if the US pulls out. But I do see the possibility that Iraq will become a strong ally of Iran. Leaders from the two countries have established a very friendly relationship. While Iraq can certainly do what is in it’s best interests, this obviously wouldn’t be good for the US, and we have to keep our own interests in mind. This would obviously be a concern if we do pull out.

Second, many Iraqi militias got started by resisting the US-led coalition. If we pull out, I think most of these militias will disband. Other militias, however, have taken advantage of the chaos to stir up religious tension. I don’t know how well the country will be able to cope with armed gangs of people inflicting terror in various neighborhoods.

Third, I absolutely agree that a new president will be able to bring a clean slate approach. Most governments are furious, or at least displeased, with the Bush administration over the unilateral decision to invade Iraq. However, some of these governments have made it pretty clear they’re looking forward to “regime change” in the States, and the opportunity to work with a new president on Iraq. Turkey is one such country, and as opposed to most countries, the Turks position matters when it comes to Iraq.

Fourth, Bush seems to have Vietnam in mind when he says setting a timetable is admitting defeat. In Vietnam, it was, because we had abandoned the war effort and allowed the VC to easily defeat the ARVN. Iraq is no Vietnam. It’s a completely different war, and a withdrawl would not be sending the “wrong signal” to anyone.

No matter what, it will take a democratic president to force any change in our Iraq policy. I think we both agree on that. But I think you are underestimating the problems that our very presence is causing. When you say leaving will make things worse, you are buying into Bush lies. Beside sectarian violence (which our occupation is doing nothing to stop), the major cause of violence IS our presence. It certainly has nothing to do with al Qaeda. If we left, there would no longer be an al Qaeda in Iraq. The shia majority hate them, and would never allow them to get a foothold in their country.

Nothing can change the fact that all the lives and blood already lost have been in vain. Throwing away more lives will never change that fact.

What I would love to see Obama do when he takes office is to immediately bring all parties to the table to figure out the best way to get the US out, and at the same time bring in the arab and international community in. We can not be part of the solution, when we are the problem. As long as we are there, we will always be seen as occupiers to most Iraqis.

Butterfly, How long should it be our responisibility to keep the new governent in place? We are only holding our finger in the dyke, and we can’t do it forever. Our continued presence is never going to prevent what is eventually going to happen. A civil war that will most likely leave the country split into 3 pieces. And that may not be such a bad solution. Iran is not going to invade if we leave. They have more incentive to have stability in the region than we do. They actually live there.

Why do people have this view of Iraqis as extremists? They really are, or were, some of the most western friendly people in the region. Actually, so are most Iranians. It is the chaos we have created that has enabled extremism to take hold in Iraq. Our continued presence is only going to make it worse, not better. We need to leave, and the best chance of Iraq surviving is to get other nations in the region involved in rebuilding Iraq. Put an arab face on reconstruction, put Iraqis to work rebuilding THEIR country. Not foreign contractors who received no-bid contracts due to their close ties to the bush administration. It is all about money and oil. Bush is trying to stay their as long as possible so he and his pals can continue to steal from all of us.

You can not listen to the bush administration, or the corporate controlled media. They are not telling you the real story.

I realise all of what you are saying jimahl, I really do. Yet Bush’s administration was the ones that over threw their government to put in leaders that he wanted in. Now it is do or go home. It was brutal force that did this. Upon bringing in that brutal force our country now is part of that war. I do not believe in war unless it is to protect ourself. This was not to protect ourself. This is not even our war. It is the Bush administrations war. It was brought on under false circumstances. If we do pull out now all the men and women that died, all the money that was spent, all the work our troops went over there to do to serve their country is in vain. There needs to be peace worked out. Not a nation going over to conquer and control. As I see it there is nothing showing me that Bush and his administration are working towards peace in the middle east. This is why it is going to take a new President with very real negotiating skills and compromises to get things in order so we can pull out. I don’t want our troops over there any more then you do. Yet like I said sometimes things happen that you must live with for the rest of your life. Without a compromise as things stand right now, leaving would not do anyone any good. There has to be change.

One again I see a lot of people who are very obviously misinformed. We are doing good in Iraq. If we pulled out now you cant take the bllod shed over there and multiply it by ten. I understand most of you only here what the news tells you therefore you do see only the bad things going on. Our soldiers our putting there life on the line to make Iraq a safer place for the people who live there. We have set up a number of clinics to help out families who need to be treated or seen. There have been many terrorist detained just this month alone. We have seized multiple weapons used to make explosives.Our troops are teaching the Iraqi soldiers to fight ,rescue, and rebuild. There are now citizens who are reporting suspected activity to our troops and Iraqi troops. They are actually working to help us make there world a better place. The main people who want us out of there are the terrorist because they dont want our troops stoping them.Iraqi people in East Rashid held elections on March 5th to determine who would represent them to the Government in Iraq.More than 1300 Iraqi recruits completed training to start patroling the streets of Baghdad. That is just the latest. There was a class of over 2400 before this one. Iraqis are helping now secure there land. They need our help. Our troops are leaving here,leaving behind there home and there families.They are paying the ultimate sacrifice for there country and our people. This is there job. It is hard on them to leave but I imagine it is even harder when they see people who say they are waisting there time. We should have gotten the job done when we were there during Dessert Storm. We are there again and if we pull out now we will be back in another 10 years when they attack us again. Setting a timetable would make us all feel better but what will happen when they set that timetable and we arent done? My husband just left last month for his 2nd deployment I want him home too. My kids and our family want them home. The other families I know want there spouse,son,daughter,daddy or whatever they may be home.We also have pride in what they do. we get the news most do not. We get the good and bad.

Iran and Iraq are already becoming allies. The war they fought was more with Saddam than the Iraqi people. They are closely aligned ideologically. One more reason why invading Iraq was a really bad idea.

Total C H A O S - much blood-shed - new international motto: Don’t call on the U.S., when things get rough they ‘white flag it’.

ok people, al qaeda was never in Iraq until the US invaded… yes I know you like to listen to Bush, but he’s an idiot and a liar…

Incase you haven’t noticed the US has already failed there… they aren’t doing anything but paying people off to not kill them…

There is no Iraqi government… so who exactly is going to take over?

Lol, and no one called on the U.S. in the first place… they attacked without international support… (uhm and everyone already knows what happens when the U.S. interferes without support, anyone heard of korea or vietnam?)

So basically all that is going to happen is a civil war, who wins, well who knows, but once the U.S. leaves the neighbouring countries are going to be thrilled…

if us pulls out of iraq the united states is going to have another terroristic attack because the government is going to fail there and al caida is going to take back over and it will be hell that means we failed and spent the last years there for nothing it would be the stupidest thing we ever did we would be putting ourselves back in danger and people dont realize that

No-one really knows, but some possible scenarios are:

• Iran takes advantage of the power vaccum and moves in to try to take over the oil fields. This probably wouldn’t happen, because any pull-out on our part would be accompanied by a credible threat to prevent this.

• the country falls into a 3 way bloody civil war and eventually becomes 3 nations

• the Iraqi government is able to maintain order, and nothing really happens

jimahl…first of all I am not buying into anything. I have my own mind, my own opinions and my own conclusions. You don’t see what I am saying and I can’t explain it in a way that you understand what I mean. The Bush administration over threw Saddam. They brought in replacement government. Ones they want to keep there. I am not saying it should be that government to stay. I am saying there needs to be a negotiation and compromise for all party’s. To leave right now today is a mistake. It will not do anything except make things worse for all countries involved.

Butterfly, I know you have your own mind, and it is a very good mind. Please take no offense. No one is saying leave right now, this instance. That is not possible. But there is no reason we can’t start a draw down immediately. Until we do that, there will be no changes in Iraq. I agree there needs to be negotiation. But with who? All parties have to be brought to the table, and the US needs to take a step back. We have no credibility in the region, and in my opinion, our conitnued occupation only makes things worse.

Al Qaida is dead. You guys need a new boogey man.

I doubt Iraq and Iran would become allies. They’ve fought bitterly for decades, and even though Saddam is gone, the ill will is not.