How do I know if my business associate is lying?

A company owner in a different country wanted to buy huge quantities of my products once they were selected by his government’s relevant ministry. They were selected and now he tells me that because of an earthquake (which actually happened) and because of some corruption in the department (which made international news), the budgets by the ministry have been temporarily put on hold so we’ll have to wait longer. Is he lying? This doesn’t make sense because it was a done deal that I was receiving an order by now. He showed his trustworthiness when he bought samples from me by paying good advance payment in cash, which no one does. Although, I did make him do it because I wasn’t giving him (authority to sell document needed for the government) unless he would by at least a number of products, which he did. The product can be duplicated or pirated if huge quantities are made (similar to the quantities needed by the ministry). He also sent me a budget postponement document allegedly sent by the ministry but I have no way of confirming directly from the source (i.e. his government) because they don’t pick up phones easily or anything. What do you think? Is this guy lying, or buying time to make pirated products (which can now be sold because of the authority I gave him, which can make things look legal, not easily of course) and then losing all contact? Or is he actually telling the truth?